Waiting...Waiting...

 Josh Marshall talks about the one thing I've been waiting for since Donald Trump emasculated his primary opponents in 2016: the breakup of the GOP.

American parties are coalitional, catch-all parties. This comes as a shock to many young people on the Left, who can't understand why their choice has to be either Donald Trump or Joe Biden. As someone said, "politics is a bus, not a taxi" and you have to go where the bus takes you and hope it's close to where you want to go. This coalitional rift over Gaza is very real and very concerning.

However, if you want schisms and rifts, check out the GOP, especially the House caucus. Basically, the GOP is currently made up of several factions: 

- First, there are the "faith based" Trumpists who are immune to facts and logics. Currently this is the dominant faction, encompassing everyone from Mike Johnson to Lauren Boebert.

- Second, you have old Chamber of Commerce Republicans. These are the money men and they will vote for fascism if it means lower taxes. However, they have to be pretty nervous about Trump's complete takeover of the GOP fundraising apparatus.

- Finally, you have the old neo-con, national security conservatives and they are fed up with Trump and his bullshit.  Are there enough of them to sway an election if they break for Biden? It's tough to say, but it seems like the pressure on Johnson to bring the Ukraine bill to the floor is immense. Someone like Ken Buck is more or less to the right of Attila the Hun, but he can't countenance what Trump is doing to America's place in the world.

The key demographics in this election are that second group of Republicans and the young people who voted for Biden in 2020. If the money men vote for Trump, but withhold their funds, that's big. If their wives or children pressure them into not supporting Trump, that could be huge. That first group is a cult; you can't convince them of shit. But if enough dominoes fall, the Chamber of Commerce Republicans might fracture.

Biden's challenge is to bring young people back into his coalition, but I remain convinced that any campaign that relies on voters under 35 is in trouble. If Biden can break with Netanyahu, that might bring some people home. But if he can also moderate his economic platform a bit, he might draw in enough people like Mark Cuban who would otherwise vote for a normie Republican.

Coalitions are fractious things. Left of Center coalitions are especially fractious and factional. What we are seeing in the GOP is a parallel factionalism that could burst asunder under the right conditions. We are already seeing huge defections by suburban, college-educated Whites.

If the GOP finally fractures, it would be in the nick of time.