Kamala Harris

 I think that everyone calling for Biden to step aside need to understand that this most likely means that either Kamala Harris will be the nominee or the party will rupture along a million fault lines. So what does that mean if Biden emerges from what I heard was a Camp David summit with his family and closest advisors to determine if he should step aside.

Part of that deliberation is whether Harris is any worse a candidate than Biden. The only poll I've seen is inconclusive.

Now, polling has been wonky, but we do know that comparing apples to apples does tell us something. Why does Biden run behind Senate candidates in the same poll? I think that's important. I would argue that there likely is a solid majority who wants to avoid another Trump presidency, but they also don't want Biden. This poll is apples to apples and it does not suggest that Biden is irreplaceable.

There is a strong anti-incumbent climate throughout the post-Covid world. Argentina elected a lunatic. Modi lost his outright majority in Parliament. The Conservatives will lose power in the coming election and who knows what will happen in France as they vote. 

Does Harris benefit from being a new face or does she get dragged down as a de facto incumbent? How much does the misogyny that sunk Clinton sink her, too? How much does she really benefit in the general from being a woman of color?

Looking at the data, I think it's clear that Generic Democrat polls at around 44%. There is no way the people answering this poll have a clear idea of who Josh Shapiro or Cory Booker is or stands for. 

If Biden makes the decision to step aside, then the question becomes 

A) Who is most likely to improve on the 45% baseline?
B) ...Without rupturing a party that is always on the verge of rupturing?

Now, the unique threat of Trump would likely mean that if the Democrats do nominate someone besides Harris, that Black women will likely vote for her "replacement" but it's not 100% certain that they will in the numbers necessary to win.

Voters don't seem to like ambitious women. That baseline of misogyny will hamper whomever the next woman to run for president is, just as it hamstrung Clinton. I can't count the number of White women who said, four years ago, "There's something about Warren or Harris I just don't like." 

Harris was a prosecutor and could do a much, much better job prosecuting the case against Trump, but in doing so would she activate that misogyny against strident women? 

Yesterday on Twitter, someone was blaming Hillary Clinton for forcing Biden out of the race in 2016. That's nonsense, as Biden was mourning the death of his son. Still, when I pointed this out, someone continued to "blame Hillary." 

I despair about that dynamic as much as I despair about Biden's age.