Cheryl Rofer shares some analysis that has been my read on the election even when Biden was running.
It begins by noting that the best predictor of future voting behavior is past voting behavior. Overwhelmingly Trump voters will vote for Trump and Biden voters will vote for Harris. The Wild Card are first time voters. Trump would have to win that group by a LOT to erase Biden's 2020 edge. (We are talking about the popular vote.)
So, the question is: Who are the new voters? I concede that some of them are young voters who remember 2017-2019 rather rosily, because they were - you know - children. However, the dynamic that Harris had brought to the race is a dramatic upswing in young Black women registering to vote for the first time. That was even before Taylor Swift weighed in.
If we look at the flagging enthusiasm, and - yes - the crowd sizes, it's really, really unclear to me where the "new" Trump voters are coming from.
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