Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Tuesday, October 15, 2024

Again, Pay Attention To What The Campaigns Do...

...Not what they say. Here's what's transpired:

- Trump has backed out of a CNBC interview. This is a Tilt Republican news outlet, but they are passably objective and the campaign seems intent on keeping his cognitive decline and increasingly pudding-brained response on the QT. A diminished Trump going in front of a business audience and rambling on about Hannibal Lecter or the McKinley Tariff could be fatal.

- Trump has announced fundraising in the last weeks of the campaign. He should have his war chest by now. Harris has hundreds of millions on hand and doing the work in GOTV. Yes, Melon Musk is spending millions for Trump, but this feels more like CyberTruck than SpaceX.

- Harris is going on Faux News for an interview. Some of this is likely countering the narrative that she doesn't do hard interviews. This is mostly false, but no matter how many interviews she gives, none will come closer to piercing that attack than sitting for a Fox interview. She also could be seeing evidence of either of the following: more Republicans might be leaning her way and/or independents want to see her in a hostile interview setting.

- Harris is considering going on Joe Rogan. Rogan isn't Fox. He's not really a hostile interviewer, but his audience is Harris' Achilles Heel: Young Dude Bros. If she does go on Rogan, that feels to me that her Fox interview is less about shoring up the criticisms about tough interviews (she did 60 Minutes) than it is about her expanding her share of the electorate. The Harris campaign has made tangible efforts to reduce the margins of defeat in "red counties" and this feels like part of that effort.

- Harris has been talking about bipartisan advisors. Perhaps she's trying to blunt criticisms of her being a California Liberal, but this also feels like she's confident that she has her base locked up and committed and is trying to win over the independent Republican-leaning voters who are skeptical of another Trump presidency.

In sum, Harris looks to be trying to expand her demographic reach and Trump is hiding from interviews and sticking to fundraisers and friendly rallies/dance parties.

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