Young Voters

 Paul Campos looks at youth voting and finds that it's not as dire as is traditionally portrayed. I do think, however, that a campaign that relies on youth voters is likely in trouble. They can be part of your coalition and they might require a bit more GOTV effort, but they should only be a piece of the puzzle (unless you have a huge state university in your district and you're running for a local or House seat). Of course, the GOP has almost no GOTV operations anyway.

As for what young voters will do, there's a fair amount of baseless speculation about young men voting for Trump. Will some of them vote for the felon? Of course. There is a Black lesbian with a PhD who is going to vote for him somewhere out there. The fundamental question is how many will vote for him. While there is a certain type of Dude Bro who might vote for Trump out of a reflexive need for performative opposition, most won't, I don't think.

Having watched a fair amount of football over the past few days, I've seen some of the closing pitches from both parties, and the GOP is pretty much 100% running on hating trans people. I'm visiting my college aged frat boy son and he said something that I would guess is a pretty widely held position on trans issues. For the most part, he really wishes he wasn't being asked to weigh in on trans rights. He thinks it's a little odd, but he really doesn't see how it affects him and he generally wants people to be happy and free to be themselves. It's a sort of negative assertion of supporting trans rights rather than affirmative support. If you're a trans activist, this is likely outrageous or at least mildly offensive. But it strikes me as the right position for most people. My son doesn't want to march in a parade in support of trans rights (or really any social or political movement) but he wants people to live and let live.

I think the GOP is coming across as kind of desperate and flop sweaty. Using hatred to motivate people seems like they've run out of arrows in their quiver. I doubt it motivates a ton of new voters and for the mildly engaged - like my son - it all just seems hateful.

One can hope.