Who Are The BIden>Trump Voters?

 I've seen the wonky polling. I've doomscrolled. In the end, my theory of the election stands as follows:

- The 2020 election is the baseline and Biden won it.

- Since 2020 we have January 6th and Dobbs. The felony convictions, too, but that's kind of baked in.

- There are Republicans and right-leaning Independents who have voted for Trump in the past who are going to vote for Harris. Mostly because of January 6th.

- There are Republicans and right-leaning Independents who have voted for Trump in the past who are not going to vote at all.

- Anyone who dragged themselves out to vote for Biden in 2020 in the midst of a pandemic is voting for Harris.

- There are more new Harris voters than new Trump voters. Mostly because of Dobbs.

- Pollsters are terrified of missing Trump voters again, so they are modelling a very GOP-leaning electorate. Some of those GOP voters are going to break for Harris.

I might be wrong on any of these individual points, but not on all of them. Especially the fact that if you voted for Biden in 2020, you are not voting for Trump in 2024.