As we approach the white knuckled finish to this election, we are faced with a stark difference in how the candidates are ending their push for office. Trump is literally falling asleep during interviews, he's rambling, he's also canceling events left and right, he won't sit for non-partisan interviews. He very much looks and sounds like an old man with no new ideas and low energy. Harris is going on TV, headed to Texas and pitching her message to various voting blocs. She has more money and more GOTV efforts.
All of this - and more - forces the question of: Why is the election close? We've been hearing for decades how important a candidate's campaign is, but Trump refuses to debate, refuses to sit down with 60 Minutes, refuses to hold real town halls. He apparently has no ground game.
Yet he could - amazingly, despairingly - win this thing. If he does - aside from the frightening challenge to American democracy - it will call into question the idea that how a candidate campaigns actually matters.
If, on the other hand, the late breakers all move towards Harris, that doesn't really answer the question definitively either. In a weird way, she's the challenger and late breakers often break that way.
Going into the summer, I would have told you that presidential debates don't matter; they are theater. The June debate turned out to perhaps be the most important debates in presidential history. Then we have Trump's bizarre turn in the single fall debate, which might have cemented the small but steady lead that Harris has had since then, roughly 3-4 points in decent polling.
Still, if this does turn out to be close, the argument that what a candidate says or does would seem to be challenged.
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