The current situation in the Persian Gulf is objectively very bad for the world. It represents a strategic defeat for the United States. Trump and Hegseth and the professional liars in their employ will assert instead a "great victory." Oil prices will likely continue to fluctuate as global markets have to process the wild ping-ponging movement of oil out of the Gulf and the slow return of that oil to global markets.
The political question of high gas prices is a tricky question. There are likely some benefits to bringing down gas prices, and they don't really respond to actual supply, it seems, but rather the prospect of future supplies. Tankers take weeks to get from the Gulf to refineries then weeks more to get to the pump. Yet the price at the pump seems to change daily dependent on which lies Trump is spouting at any given moment.
The question of whether this ceasefire will actually lead to peace is one that Trump can't spin. If we start shooting again, that's not something he can lie about. If we capitulate, Trump will simply lie and say we won, and if gas prices fall, then the average dipshit voter might very well believe him. If energy prices stay high, and the impact of our defeat over control of the Straits grows in the public consciousness - the way the collapse in Afghanistan did - then Trump's collapse will continue to his floor of 27%.
If he reaches that, Democrats win the Senate. Perhaps comfortably.
Oh, and Melania decided to bring up Epstein again, so that looms over everything, too.
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