TACO Time

 Trump backed down/was never serious. I think that was always the gambit, but he's such a fucking lunatic, you hesitate to make any firm predictions. The "two week ceasefire" feels like face saving bullshit from every party involved. I'm reluctant to believe that this is the end of Trump's Iranian Misadventure. Maybe they just collapse into status quo ante, but who knows? 

The leaking has started about the process that led us here, and Maggie Haberman has the deets here. My hope is that Trump really has soured on the war and that would make Hegseth the fall guy.  Good.

The war - if it is truly over and I think that's a 50-50 proposition - has been a strategic calamity for the US. We might achieve some measure of status quo ante if that looks like 
- The Revolutionary Guard are still firmly in control in Tehran.
- The Straits of Hormuz are open.
- Iran's military capacity has been deeply degraded - aside from its drones.
- Maybe there's some deal with the nuclear program?

None of that represents a "win" for the United States compared to the situation in mid-February.

Iran took a pummeling. Whoop-de-doo. They were not a serious threat to Israel, but they have established just how serious a threat they are to the Gulf States and the global commerce that flows through there. The degradation of their conventional forces doesn't really move the needle of power in the Middle East. They can shut down the Straits. They demonstrated that they CAN and they demonstrated what that means for the global economy.

Here's the true salient fact. Oil prices will remain high for some time. The Gulf will not suddenly be open and prices will fall and we will be back to $2.75 gasoline. The OTHER products from the Gulf are also unlikely to resume shipping quickly, including fertilizer and aluminum. These will be Covid-like supply chain disruptions that will continue to be felt for months. 

The war has made Trump even more unpopular. His unhinged public performances have MAGA-types calling for the 25th Amendment (sorry, not happening). He has absolutely torched his "brand" of "we need to run government like a business." His genocidal rhetoric was simply a performance, and he thankfully lacks the bloodlust to actually follow through. He's a coward, after all.

Now I'm reading that Iranian social media is saying that America has agreed to a complete and total capitulation, including withdrawing its forces from the region, lifting all sanctions and allowing Iran to control the Straits. That would be a complete and total humiliation for the US and its Gulf Allies. 

This is why the two week ceasefire is likely bullshit and Iran and the US will simply regroup, some oil will make it out and we will be at this again soon. This is the same yo-yo nonsense we saw with his trade wars now applied to shooting wars. There is no way that what Iran is proposing can be acceptable to anyone outside of Iran.

The ceasefire was a TACO from his genocidal statements earlier that managed to freak out even his supporters. He was not going to nuke Iran and he had to take the temporary climb-down, but the Iranian terms are absolutely a non-starter.

Anyway, Kamala Harris had a weird laugh, I guess. I kinda liked it.