Krugman notes that the REAL oil crunch hasn't arrived yet. Prices are bouncing all over the place based on Trump's erratic statements and the yo yo-ing of plans and statements by the US and Iran. Countries and companies are drawing down reserves to compensate for the reduced flow of oil. Presumably production is ramping up, too. Even if there was a real peace deal agreed to today, it would take many months to get oil production to return to pre-war levels.
Krugman concludes with this observation:
Translation: So far, despite much higher oil prices, demand for oil has fallen by only a fraction of the loss of supply. Instead, the world economy is running by taking oil out of storage. Since there’s only so much oil in the tanks, this can’t go on. So if the Strait doesn’t reopen, prices will have to soar high enough — and inflict sufficient economic damage — to destroy another 11 or more million barrels a day of demand. That’s a lot.
But Trump is talking about his ballroom.
This may seem weird, but it makes sense if you view it psychologically. Trump is clearly dissociating. His fragile sense of self-worth depends on constantly believing that he’s a winner while others are losers. Now he’s faced with the reality that he, more or less single-handedly, led America to humiliating strategic defeat.
So, viewed through the lens of his narcissistic wound, the immediate pivot from the assassination attempt to talking about how he HAS TO HAVE A BALLROOM is really about narcissistic supply.
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