When Winning Is Losing

Yogi Bear (R-Jellystone)

When the 2010 election was over, a lot of pundits noted that the really bad news for Democrats was not losing the House, but all the governor's mansions.  The thinking went that governors are the bench for presidential aspiration and so many GOP governors were winning in critical swing states that this was where the Democrats were really vulnerable.

Funny thing happened.

In those critical four swing states (Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida and Michigan) the GOP governors immediately began doing, you know, what they said they were going to do and more.  The result is that Walker of Wisconsin, Kasich of Ohio, Scott of Florida and Snyder of Michigan would all lose their election if it was held today.

Part of that is the recession.  Our own governor Malloy is not popular because he's raising taxes and cutting spending.  It's tough to be the chief executive anywhere.

But Walker faces a recall election.  One of Kasich's signature legislative accomplishments is going to a referendum where it looks certain to lose.  And Rick Scott... Holy crap.

Quinnipiac polled Floridians on how they feel about Scott a scant five months after he took over. Only 29% think he's doing a good job.  Given the widely circulated belief that a Republican will ALWAYS have 27% support no matter if he ate a baby with kitten sauce on TV while preempting American Idol, this means that nobody really like this guy.

PPP polled the people of Ohio and Kasich - who undertook a slightly less confrontational version of the Walker plan for his state employees - has a 33% approval rating.  PPP went also went on to ask how people would vote if they could have a do-over of the 2010 election.  This time, Strickland beats Kasich 59-34.

Walker, ironically, does a little better.  He's polling at 43% favorable, 57% unfavorable.  Maybe Rasmussen pushed leaners, but I've never seen a poll with zero undecided.  PPP has him at 43% favorable, 54% unfavorable.  They also polled the recall question: 50% favor, 47% oppose.  We'll see if he can recover any between now and when he's eligible to be recalled, but it's not like he's winning any new friends.

On the question of whether to have a Democratic State Senate or a Republican one, the numbers are also pretty similar: 50% want Democrats to control it, 42% want Republicans to control it.

Meanwhile in Michigan, they have already begun collecting signatures for a recall petition on Rick Snyder.  You may or may not know him as the guy who reserved for the governor the right to disband municipal governments and put state run "austerity managers" in their place.

The larger point is this:  these GOP governors are the most obvious examples to many people of GOP overreach.  The Ryan/GOP budget is bad for the GOP, but it's also largely a hypothetical.  IF the GOP controls both branches, THEN Medicare will be effectively ended.  But these governors are doing actual things that people find very unpopular.  (Plus, Rick Scott is just a huge dick.)

My Glorious Wife hates it when people talk about a political party's "brand".  But this is clearly a case where the GOP brand is getting pummeled.  So far, the GOP governor of Pennsylvania has largely escaped an extreme backlash, but it can't be long now.

The result will be people who will "send a message" to their governors in November 2012, just the same way they "sent a message" to Obama in 2010.  Don't worry that the messages are inconsistent, but just be aware that the message is in the mail.