Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Friday, March 27, 2020

The Debate

Trump and the conservative agitprop outlets have already started framing the question of the Covid-19 response in terms of ending the response, rather than getting clear of the crisis.  In other words, Trump wants to end social distancing and get back to normal. His argument is based on sketchy economic thinking. He assumes that by Easter we can all go back to normal.  My guess is that he's been told by someone that if he doesn't re-open the economy by Easter, the economy won't bounce back by November.

As the Vox piece notes, we are headed for the worst outbreak of Covid-19 in the world. If we pull back on restrictions, we could see a horrific toll.  And it's not just Covid-19. There is evidence from Italy that ALL deaths increase during a mass outbreak, because healthcare providers are overwhelmed from all angles. If you have a heart attack, you can't go to the ER, or if you do, you'll get care that isn't what it otherwise might have been.

Mass death has a negative economic consequence.

April was always going to be the breaking point.  All the epidemiological models have pointed to this. Trump's rash call to end social distancing restrictions on Easter will look as stupid and foolish as his other utterances, as we will be seeing a spike in deaths starting now and continuing for several weeks.  While NYC is the epicenter now, look for Florida and Louisiana to start grabbing attention.

Trump doesn't care about you. He cares about winning re-election. That means - in his estimation - a strong economy.  We are not going to have a strong economy by November. Not if we practice social distancing.  Not if we abandon it. As this fact sinks into that thick orange melon, he will become even more erratic.  That will lead to more deaths, as his cultists follow his lead.

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