Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Friday, March 20, 2020

Trump's Approval Rating

Some people are aghast that Trump's approval rating isn't taking a pummelling.  These are the people who are both A) anti-Trump to begin with and B) not really voracious consumers of news.  Trump is standing at a podium!  He's making word sounds with his mouth!  The fact that those word sounds are wrong or inflammatory is besides the point.

Trump "looks" presidential now, if all you are doing is watching TV with the sound off. Back in the '80s, Michael Deaver apparently called NBC to thank them for a segment on Reagan cutting Medicare.  NBC was flummoxed.  Why would he thank them for a negative segment?  Deaver explained that all people heard were "Reagan" and "Medicare" and assumed that it was a positive story.

The fact of the matter are the facts of the matter. This is going to get worse. We are going to start to see horror stories from NYC hospitals on the news.  And it will not be over in 2-4 weeks.  Absent a vaccine, we will continue to get hot spots and outbreaks as we relax the social distancing. 

The economy is headed for a depression. Frankly, 2008 was likely a depression, but if we define a depression as a loss of 10% of GDP over two quarters, then I think we are likely headed to a depression.

Trump had one thing going for him: the economy.  It will be a hot mess by November. He will also likely have more outbursts on camera, including a likely complete meltdown.  Looking at his approval ratings now is silly.  He's getting some hopeful rally-round-the-flag bump, but it won't last.

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