Why "China Virus" Matters

Trump's newest rhetorical tic is to call the coronavirus the China Virus (or Ginuh virus). 

The immediate response in some corners is to call this racist.  OK, it sort of is, but like with a great deal of Trump's racism, it's usually a feint as much as a threat.  He wants you to freak out at him calling it the China Virus, because his cultists have already decided that this is all China's fault. This is more an expression of Trump's xenophobia and isolationism than any direct racism directed at China (though we have anecdotal evidence that Chinese and Chinese Americans are being harassed or at the very least their businesses are being boycotted).

Trump is most likely screwed come November.  We are about to enter a recession that could actually be a depression. The one thing people tended to give Trump credit for was the economy.  The fact that it's kind of ridiculous to credit him for an expansion that started before he became president is besides the point. What's more worrisome is that Trump kept Wall Street humming with massive tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy. That money is now gone, and we are talking about bailing out many of those industries who used their tax cuts for share buyback programs rather than saving for a rainy day.  Wall Street knows this.  Look at the Dow.

The immediate influx of cash (emergency UBI) will help, but this is uncharted waters for a modern economy.  He was never popular. He's looking at -10 approval ratings and -21 right track/wrong track metric before the shit has really hit the fan.  His cultists will never abandon him, so he's unlikely to get much below 40% of the popular vote, but that's not enough.

Which brings me back to China. Trump's a master of deflection. There is a plausible argument that a pandemic is largely beyond the control of any president. However, Trump spent the previous six weeks downplaying Covid19 and it's all on tape. He's only recently come around to realizing how bad this will be.  For him.  He doesn't give a shit about you.  But he knows that a cratered economy is terrible news for him.  Thus, the Republicans are embracing massive Keynesian cash distributions to spur demand.

But that won't be enough.  Hence, the "China Virus." 

First, he will blame this entire thing on China.  Again, China deserves some blame for the early handling of this virus, but that was back in December. Blaming China for this three months afterwards is a stretch, but that won't matter to the cultists. Deflect, deflect, deflect. "I take no responsibility for this" drove normal people crazy, because it's such an appalling abandonment of leadership, but that's OK.  He's not talking to you.  He's talking to his base, and they are ready to blame this on everyone but him.

Second, he needs both internal and external scapegoats.  China is the external one, and now anyone who criticizes him will be selling out America to China.  The Media and Democrats will be in league against him and Real Muricans. Grievance and siege mentality are the natural stance of modern "conservatism."

Trump is incapable of learning, but he knows what he knows.  And he knows how to skate responsibility because he's been doing it his whole life.  Declare bankruptcy, divorce another wife, spin a farrago of bullshit. I doubt very much this will work given the brutal arithmetic of Covid19, but again, Trump knows what he knows and I expect this will be the focus of the next month (not trying to stop the virus).