Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Monday, March 9, 2020

Why Biden?

Ezra Klein tries to figure out why Joe Biden looks like he's headed for the nomination. There are some interesting insights - like how voters don't care if a candidate is especially articulate.  He concludes that a lot of Democrats are A) not extremely online and plugged in and therefore B) mostly interested in just getting rid of Trump and therefore C) think Biden can bring back some sense of normalcy.

That makes more or less sense. The Big Transformational Candidates - Sanders and to a lesser degree Warren - have a hold on roughly a third of the Democratic electorate. Most other Democrats see one critically important quality for the 2020 nominee: Can this person beat Donald Trump? Trump has been seen - rightly - as a threat to America's very governing institutions. He's a wannabe authoritarian and a moron who is floundering his way through office in the midst of potentially the worst pandemic since 1919.

And that's where Klein loses the thread.  He ends by saying that Trump has never gotten about 50% approval rating, but that people are generally happy about the economy.  Here's his conclusion:

Still, Democrats have to face the fact that there are a lot of voters who are happy with the economy and just don’t like Trump. Biden’s pitch to them, basically, is that he’ll remove Trump from office but not do anything drastic to alter economic trends. That may be a better strategy than much of the left believes.

The obvious hole in the center of that argument is that the economy is collapsing.

Therefore, what Biden is selling isn't Trump's Economy Without The Tweets.  What Biden is selling is a return to something normal.  This infuriates Sanders' supporters who see the whole system as fundamentally broken: Capitalism Red in Tooth and Claw. 

If - as most suspect - Covid-19 gets worse, Biden's message should resonate even more. Providing he doesn't get sick, which - no kidding - scares the crap out of me.

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