When Trump announced he was Covid positive and then flew to Walter Reed, there was a certain group of commentators online who assumed this was a hoax or a bid to throw a Hail Mary in the presidential campaign. Trump would fake having Covid, then emerge healthy and say it wasn't a big deal. These piping hot takes are really more about the mindset of the center-left and left since 2016. The election was such a bolt from the blue, such an outlier in our experience, that people are assuming that lightning will strike twice. Trump has some evil mojo that renders all normal politics moot.
The problem is that there is enough evidence to see what's happening here. First, he has no secret mojo. Undecideds broke heavily in his favor after the Comey letter. However, four years later a significant number of people have soured on him. The primary evidence for this is the 2018 Blue Wave that no one seems to want to remember happening.
Mostly though, we need to remember "Trump's Razor." Formulated by Josh Marshall, basically if you have no concrete explanation for Trump's behavior, assume it's the stupidest explanation. Here's what seems to be coming into focus:
Trump got infected some time ago. Before the debate, certainly. It takes a while to become symptomatic. There's an excellent chance he knew he was infected when he went to the debate and yelled at Biden for 90 minutes. He was going to try and cover it up, since many infected people have no symptoms. When the Hope Hicks infection leaked out, and Trump started becoming symptomatic, they made the announcement that he was positive for Covid.
Trump is a great big manbaby. He's as tough as wet Kleenex. He's also president. So at this point one of two things happened (or maybe a combination of two things). Trump got really sick and they rushed him to Walter Reed or he got panicky and demanded that he be taken to Walter Reed. If his O2 really crashed, then it makes sense that they would rush him to the hospital.
At this point we were treated to a melange of contradictory messages from Trump's medical team. On the one hand, he's doing great, no problem. On the other, he's being prescribed the kitchen sink of medicines, including remdesivir and dexamethasone - both of which have serious side effects. So is Trump on death's door? If so, why take his little Covid Caravan yesterday?
There's is something called the VIP effect, whereby powerful patients are allowed to call the tune of their treatment. So it is possible that Trump - a known germaphobe obsessed with looking "strong" - has demanded that he be treated with every known drug under the sun? Sure. Could he also be at legitimate risk of dying, given his age and obesity? Also, sure.
None of this means that some dark conspiracy is at work. Much more likely is simply that Trump's usual Gang of Farce can't get their act together enough to deliver a consistent message. Trump's little caravan of death and Dr. Conley's contradictory statements are simply the natural results of a White House that can't really do anything right.
There is a possibility that Trump only had a mild case, he's being treated with everything they can throw at him and he emerges looking fine in a few days. This would be bad for the health of the country as his cultists will believe even more strongly that Covid is overrated and they can safely go back to licking doorknobs. Hopefully, Trump returns to the White House and has to lay low for a week or two as he recovers from the very real damage his lungs may have suffered.
This is not likely to help persuade swing voters that Trump is the guy to see them out of this pandemic. Stop with the hot takes about him being a master strategist. He's not. The same moron who looked directly into an eclipse is the same moron who got himself Covid, despite being the most protected person in the world.
Update: This says it better.
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