Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Tuesday, October 6, 2020

Too Hard To Conceptualize

 One problem we have with American's understanding of Covid is that we are basically an innumerate society, unable to comprehend numbers more complicated that what we can see in front of us. The fact that over 200,000 Americans have died of Covid isn't something we easily wrap our heads around. As Stalin said, "One death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic."

That's why we need things like this. David Kennedy, one of the premier historians in the US, would take his students into Stanford Stadium, tell them to imagine it full, then say that every week from 1929-1933, a stadium full of people lost their jobs. It takes an abstract number and makes it real.

The obvious worry is that narratives are stronger than our weak grasp of numbers. If Trump sails through this, it will reinforce a narrative that Covid is no big deal. Pictures of him gasping for air during his Mussolini Moment on the White Bleak House balcony last night suggest that Trump is pushing too hard, too soon to show that he has "beaten" Covid. Public health almost requires that he have a public episode of falling ill again. He needs to get worse, not because of any personal animus I might have towards him, but because too many people are willing to get Covid because the odds are it won't kill them. Leaving aside the long term health concerns, this is a nihilistic view of preventable death. 

Biden is inching towards a 10+ point lead in the national polling averages, and post-debate/Covid polls look to be moving away from Trump. As the possibility of Trump's defeat becomes more real, the likelihood of his reckless behavior increases with it. 

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