If polling continues to be where it is, and where it has been remarkably steady throughout the race, then Joe Biden will win this election. Polling averages have him at 50.8% and Trump at 43%. That six percent who somehow haven't made up their minds will either not vote or should break somewhat to Biden. As the president becomes more unhinged, those maddeningly baffled undecideds shouldn't tilt towards Trump. They are simply waiting to see if Biden really is non compos mentis. As it becomes clear that he is not, they should drift in his direction slightly.
As the reality of Trump's defeat takes hold, we will start to see GOP leaders inch away from him. He will become more unhinged, imperilling GOP candidates in places like South Carolina and Kansas, that would not otherwise be competitive. As that happens, the GOP will have to think about a post-Trump future and how to navigate it. Currently, they are quivering about the deranged members of Cult 45, but at some point self-preservation will take hold. Everyone worried about some sort of secret, double backflip plot to steal the election should understand that Trump's magic was all an illusion. He's losing the Midwest and older white voters right now.
There were three things that elected Donald Trump. First, any major party candidate has a puncher's chance. Second, the Comey Letter tapped into paranoid theories about the Clintons. Finally, rank misogyny put an anchor on Clinton that was not completely clear until later. Biden only has to compete with one of those and he's winning.
Republicans know it. They are scared. They should be.
No comments:
Post a Comment