Broken

 I think Joe Biden wins this thing.

He's winning Wisconsin. He's won Arizona. He should move into the lead in Michigan soon. If he wins Nevada, those states - combined with Nebraska's Second CD - get him to EXACTLY 270. Hopefully he wins PA and GA just to make the point clear.

As Paul Campos rightly notes, it doesn't really matter at this point who the candidate is or what policies they propose, Republicans are going to come out and vote for a Republican, even if that person is a legitimate conman, criminal and incapable of governing the country. Institutional problems like the composition of the Senate and therefore the Electoral College entrench their advantage. Biden will win the popular vote by anywhere from 6-7 million votes, but the actual election is a nail biter. 

Like 2016 and even 2018, the Senate map is just a gut punch. Unless Sara Gideon somehow pulls ahead in Maine, or there are miracles in Alaska and/or Georgia, Republicans will control the chamber and deny Biden everything. Hell, I could see them denying him a chance to replace Stephen Breyer on the SCOTUS, though I would guess they will negotiate a deal. Biden ran saying he could convince Senate Republicans to work with him. Even if he can he really get Murkowski, Collins and maybe Sasse to vote with him on Covid relief, voting rights or tax bills, McConnel won't even bring the bills to the floor for a vote.

The stark disparity between the desires of a majority of Americans and what they want and what our institutions will accommodate is striking.