Trumpism 2024

 There are two takes on who will run in 2024 as the "next Trump." Paul Campos makes the strong point that Trump will run if he's legally able. Campos is a little cynical about Trump not being prosecuted because he's a rich white guy. I think there will be criminal charges against him in both state and federal court, but it's going to be next to impossible to find a neutral jury. But let's assume Trump can't or doesn't run.

Campos breaks the potential replacements into conventional politicians like Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz and Tom Cotton, thinking Hawley is the likely candidate. Or maybe Don Jr or Ivanka runs. I doubt Ivanka runs, and she has the charisma of a week old PB&J sandwich. Finally, he settles on Tucker Carlson, which I think is a smart bet. Campos lists the attributes of Trumpism (in admittedly less than flattering terms):

*Open white supremacy

*Open nativism

*Open misogyny

*Open contempt for experts, intellectuals, universities, etc.

*Open embrace of reactionary Christianity as the informal state religion

*Open hatred of independent journalism

*Open authoritarianism

*A cult of personality organized around a celebrity

I think that misses the point of Trumpism, which is more the distillation and endpoint of Cleek's Law, namely that "conservatives believe the opposite of what liberals believe, updated every 15 minutes." Trump is the raging sputtering id from OANN (Fox has become too tame).  The open embrace of odious positions was less from conviction - though that was part of it - and less because it's the opposite of what the cultural left proposed.

As I've said elsewhere, Trumpism isn't about the lyrics, it's about the music, and not everyone has the ear to hear it. Stiffs like Cruz, Cotton and Rubio aren't going to match the music. Carlson might.

Jennifer Rubin, bless her heart, believes that the support of people like Rubio, Cruz, Cotton, Hawley or Nikki Haley should disqualify them from being elected in 2024. As we have seen from Trump, outrageous behavior by GOP politicians has no real negative consequence. Their support for Trump is the minimal entry requirement for being nominated in 2024.

For my money, the GOP nominee will almost have to be an asshole. Not someone pretending to be an asshole, but a real dyed in the wool dick. Also, not a loathsome shitheel like Ted Cruz, but the sort of blustering asshole that feeds the warm fuzzies of GOP voters. The pugnaciousness of Trump was his biggest selling point. There was no policy (literally, in the case of the 2020 platform) but rather an attitude of bluster and defiance and tearing shit up.

For this reason, I think Mike Pompeo stands a strong chance of being the calmer, more dangerous Trump. He's a West Point grad and has somewhat more message discipline than the intemperate Trump. He's a huge asshole in all the important ways, but his military service removes one of Trump's weaknesses among a section of reliable GOP voters.

Maybe there's some other dickish Republican out there ready to seize Trump's mantle. It's a long way to 2022, when the GOP contest will really kick off. But Pompeo strikes me as being exactly the sort of brutish asshole who appeals to evangelicals and has the right sort of charisma to pull it off.