Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Monday, November 2, 2020

With That Being Said....

 While there is no reason to explode into stress-filled supernovas today, I'm going to be very much stressed tomorrow night. Which is also nuts, because it's very likely that we won't know the victor tomorrow night.

Again, Biden is in a much, much better place now than Clinton was four years ago. It is unlikely we will see identical polling errors as we saw in 2016, and Trump would require a bigger polling error in his favor than he got last time. Biden has a commanding lead.

It's just that the stake are so incredibly high. 

Joe Biden will get more votes than Donald Trump tomorrow, but they are not all likely to be counted. While Trump can't "declare victory" and somehow hang on to power, and judges are not likely to invent reasons why you shouldn't count legal ballots turned in on time...we all lived through 2016 and the disappointing results from Florida, followed by the slow drumbeat of doom from the Blue Wall.

I do think Biden wins the national popular vote by over 6%, perhaps as much as 10%. But I do worry that he will be running up the score in already safe states like CA, NY and IL. 

I just hope the Philly suburbs save us.

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