The perpetual emotional state of Democrats is that of anxious, impending doom. They can't look at any race and assume that they will do well. This largely comes from the trauma of 2000 and 2016. In those two elections, defeat was snatched from the jaws of victory. In 2000, the networks called - the uncalled - Florida for Al Gore. I don't think we need to go into 2016.
What this erases is 2008, 2012 and 2018. In Obama's election in 2008, Democrats assumed a massive "Bradley Effect" where white voters would tell pollsters that they were "voting for the Black guy" and then behave differently in the voting booth. That didn't happen. In 2012, pollsters over learned the lessons of 2010 and underestimated Obama's support. In 2018, polls showed a strong preference for a Democratic Congress and that came to pass. The voters had a strong reaction to the chaos and cruelty of Trumpistan.
Now, we have a monumentally important election that determines whether America slides into elective authoritarianism. An illegitimate Trump win aided by corruption in the Courts could lead to disunion. People are sweating Pennsylvania again.
Given the stakes, anxiety is perfectly reasonable. However, it's not entirely founded on reality. As I've written here multiple times, the polls were only catastrophically wrong if you stopped reading them in mid-October. The polls very accurately captured the late movement to Trump.
We simply aren't seeing that this year. To the degree that there is some late movement, Biden's lead is large enough to buffer those losses.
Twitter melted down over a Seltzer polls that shows Trump winning Iowa 48-41. Except Trump won Iowa 51-42 last time. In other words, he's lost 3% points. If that holds true across the Upper Midwest, Trump loses the Blue Wall and Biden is president. Iowa is not critical to Biden winning the presidency.
Instead, Biden is reassembling and building on the Obama Coalition (or the Emerging Democratic Majority). Biden is winning college graduates by 20, he's winning women by 16, he's up 34 with Hispanics - if weaker than expected with that demographic. He's winning 90% of African Americans. He's running 10 points better than Clinton did among White Without College.
In other words, he's added votes in the suburbs and eaten into Trump's margins in the exurbs and countryside. Trump has added no one to his coalition of aggrieved white people. There is also the wildcard of youth voting. In Texas and elsewhere there is strong signs of a growing participation by younger voters who lean Democratic. There is also evidence that Biden winning the 65+ demographic.
Where is Trump's victory? Increasingly, Republicans have signaled that they see this math, too, and are putting all their eggs into the baskets of getting Republican judges to throw out ballots and somehow declare victory before the ballots are all counted. And, yes, violence seems to be an option for them, too.
There is a scenario where pollsters completely missed Trump voters again. Alternatively, there is a scenario where pollsters miss youth turnout or Biden's surprising strength among older voters. While national polls "don't matter" Biden has a pretty clear 8-9 point lead and is over 50%. Trump remains mired with his 43%. Tens of millions of votes have been cast.
Yes, I'm worried about naked corruption in the Courts. But think about how unlikely it will be to see voting stopped on Wednesday. This is the emotional rollercoaster of being a Manic Progressive. If Trump wasn't such an odious troll, no one would be worried about a Democratic victory.
If you haven't voted, vote. If you can phone bank, phone bank. Take a deep breath.
It's not 2016, it's 2008. Remember this?
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