The Times has some polling about the relative support for Roe in various states. I think these numbers might be a bit old, and I imagine there will be some changes once the decision comes down in June.
Let's start where support for Roe exists, but is weakest: Missouri. Roe is barely above water there, but I feel confident that the Missouri GOP will nominate someone awful who might move the needle more. They gave us Todd Akin, then can give us some nutsack.
Next up is Georgia where abortion is roughly +2. Raphael Warnock is running for a full term, and he can likely win minority votes. Peeling off those suburban white women would be huge for him.
North Carolina is an interesting one, where abortion rights are +5. Richard Burr is retiring so it's an open seat like Missouri. I had real hopes that NC would flip in 2020, but I would be happy if it do so in November.
Here's a wild card: Oklahoma. Abortion is pretty popular there at +5. I wouldn't expect that to lead to a Democratic pick up, but that would be hilarious if Alito managed to flip Oklafuckinghoma purple.
Iowa is another state were abortion is largely positive at +7. Chuck Grassley is also ancient and likely non compos mentis.
Ohio could be the key. Abortion polls at +10 making it a potential huge wedge issue. JD Vance is an odious authoritarian and largely unlikable guy and Tim Ryan has a legit shot at this, if he can play the abortion issue right.
Let's go to Wisconsin where abortion polls at +13, and Ron Johnson is a simpering moron. You can't gerrymander the entire state, assholes.
Pennsylvania is another state with a competitive election and abortion polls at +13 there, too.
Same with Arizona, where you have a fairly popular incumbent in Mark Kelly.
A real wildcard is Florida, where abortion polls at +18. Marco Rubio is a godbothering empty suit. Hopefully, Ron DeSantis and abortion combined can flip this cesspool of a state back on to dry land.
Abortion should help Lisa Murkowski hold off the lunatic fringe in Alaska (+25).
Nevada is considered a toss-up but abortion is polling at +32 there.
This is not to say that you can just chirp "pro choice" and waltz to electoral victory. I know that abortion rights activists won't like this, but "safe, legal and rare" remains a really appealing strategy in the wake of the wholesale assault on ALL abortion rights. "Rare" simply means more effective birth control (which the American Taliban are coming for next, mark my words).
I do think that you will find Mitch McConnell looking more fretful than usual is Alito and the Fascistic Four fully remove Roe's protections.
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