The Dog That Caught The Car

 By all accounts, the Supreme Court is about to overturn Roe v Wade. The Very Online folks are of course full of hot takes about how this is all the Democrats' fault for not

- abolishing the filibuster to expand the Court
- sitting out the 2016 election, because Bernie didn't get the nomination
- being better at hardball politics
- not somehow forcing Judge Ginsburg to retire sooner
- all/none of the above

This is, of course, a rank example of Murc's Law. With the exception of Joe Manchin - who votes to approve Biden and Obama's pro-choice judges - every Senate Democrat would pass a bill to codify Roe into national law. Let's say that they could somehow overturn the Court's ruling with a bill that would pass 51-50 by getting rid of the filibuster (somehow) by creating a national law that makes abortion legal.

This Court would simply rule that law unconstitutional.

The central problem facing America today are its antiquated, anti-democratic institutions. Chief among these are the Senate and thereby the Electoral College and the Supreme Court. Three of the Justices who are about to overturn 50 years of established law were appointed by a man who failed to win the popular vote and then launched a coup attempt four years later. Two more were nominated by a man who initially won the presidency while losing the popular vote, but who at least had the self-knowledge to wait until he won his "mandate" in 2004 before stacking the Court.

And stacking the Court is very much the long term plan of social conservatives and theocrats since the early 1970s. They have been relentless in this goal and while there have been "institutionalists" on the Court like Anthony Kennedy and John Roberts, the current Gang of Five who are going to overturn Roe are sufficiently inoculated from the public to do whatever the hell they want. I don't necessarily see the angle to overturn the precedents in Obergefell or Lawrence, I also see no reason why they would stop there. I'm guessing that we will overturn Abington this session, too.

The focus will be on Roe, though and rightfully so. This has been an established right for 50 years and it has been the organizing principle of the religious Right for the same time. It has led to the unlikely alliance of conservative Catholics and Evangelicals that upended old political alliances and created the rise of the New Right. The DC politicians mostly couldn't give a shit about abortions - they were probably paying for their mistresses abortions  - but that's where the votes are, and that's what they wanted to do.

By the end of June, maybe half the country will have made abortion illegal thanks to the Court.

Here's where I wonder/hope that things pivot.

Polling on abortion is a bit dependent on how you word it, but Gallup has the following numbers: 

- Abortion should be legal under certain circumstances - 48%
- Abortion should be legal under any circumstances - 32%
- Abortion should be illegal in all circumstances - 19%

Pew words it differently. They find 59% say it should be legal in all or most cases, whereas 39% says it should be illegal in all or most cases.

No matter which way you examine it, there is a supermajority support for abortion with some restrictions. The laws making their way through Red State legislatures are incredibly restrictive, including bans on abortion even in cases of rape and incest. These are unpopular with the median voter even in places like Texas.

For decades, the GOP has been able to make rhetorical hay from the abortion issue without ever having to actually give the theocratic Christianists what they want. They can decry the death of the "preborn" (Jesus...) without having to anger the broad middle of the country that supports reasonable access to reproductive choice.

Now, the GOP has no cover. The theocrats have "won" but at what cost?

The dynamics leading in to the midterm elections are not great for Democrats at the moment. Inflation remains a concern and energy prices are not going to come down anytime soon. The economy is growing but in ways that discomfort in certain sectors.

We know that the GOP's primary attack angles have and will be culture war grievances. They are planning to win the suburbs back with CRT bullshit and Mexican caravans. This moment, however, could tip the culture wars more broadly in the Democrats' favor. This blanket ban on abortion could energize those who see this GOP as responsible for attacks on women's autonomy over their own bodies.

I've long held that the institutional GOP exploits culture war grievances to win elections so that they can reward the rich with tax cuts and deregulation. Trump ripped that open and made the grievances the point and the policy. Now, the bill could be coming due. The Chrisitianists are the dog that caught the car. Let's see how that works out for them.