The Senate is poised to vote on a "message bill" codifying some sort of abortion right. It will fail to get cloture, and there is a chance Joe Manchin will vote against cloture, too.
I have to agree with Matthew Yglesias on this one. Right now, somehow preserving access to reproductive health services is the key issue. While the public broadly supports first trimester abortions with exceptions for health of the mother after that, there is way less support for a blanket right to an abortion. What's more, the Clinton Era rhetorical formulation of "safe, legal and rare" is also very popular.
We are already seeing massive overreach by some Republicans. Louisiana's proposed law is a nightmare. Marsha Blackburn wants to restrict contraception to married people. Missouri wants to restrict people from traveling out of state for an abortion. These are radical, radical positions.
Democrats need to seize the middle ground here. They need to propose an untrammeled right to an abortion in the first trimester, with exceptions for the health of the mother after that. Most importantly, they need to try and create universal access to contraception so that we have fewer abortions.
There are genuinely "pro-life" people who oppose abortion, war and the death penalty. Most anti-choice Americans are enthusiastic supporters of war and the death penalty and efforts to go after contraception will only intensify. Isolate the "forced birth" movement from those opposed to second trimester abortions. If that means a more moderate bill that Manchin, Collins and Murkowski can support then THAT IS A GOOD THING.
UPDATE: Here is my "message bill."
- No restrictions on abortion during the first trimester
- After the first trimester, abortion allowed to protect the life and health of the mother.
- Universal access and funding for contraceptive care
- Universal access and funding for prenatal care
The GOP will vote against this, but that's the point.
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