There is a long running presumption that the GOP - and by extension, the most important long term leader, Mitch McConnell - is super-terrific at politics, because they are so good at winning narrow elections. The actual reason is that our Congress - and therefore our Electoral College - is extremely biased in favor of rural regions of the country.
Back in 2016, everyone knew that Trump would be a disaster for the party, only to discover that the average GOP and GOP-leaning voters was every bit as racist and sexist as Democrats had been saying they were for years. As a result, Trump won the most unlikely of victories, but eking out narrow victories in the "Blue Wall."
After January 6th, Trump and Trumpism should have been done. However, the Democrats offered the GOP an escape hatch: impeach Trump from power and prohibit him from running from federal office ever again. McConnell passed.
I have no idea what will happen in November. I'm still cautiously optimistic about the Senate, because I think so much partisan voting is baked in to the results. The House chances took a hit when the NY Supreme Court declared their new congressional map contrary to the state constitution, in the sort of unilateral disarmament that people decry about the elected Democratic Party all the time.
Anyway, if Democrats can hold on to or increase their Senate, while possibly losing the House, and the economy largely levels out in the next year, then Biden and Democrats should feel pretty comfortable heading into a rematch with Trump. Biden vs DeSantis could be trickier, simply because Americans are tired of the gerontocracy.
If McConnell had helped convict Trump in his second impeachment, the GOP could begin to move beyond the chaos of the Trump years and offer DeSantis's "Competent Trumpism." Instead they are married to this moldering fool.
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