Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Sunday, January 12, 2025

Equilibrium

 As we come to the eve of Trumpistan 2, I think it's important to maintain one's emotional and psychological equilibrium.  Let's be clear: Things are going to get worse for quite a few people, though probably not as bad as a worst case scenario might suggest. But, no, Trump is not going to invade Greenland or Canada.

What's more, the only reason he drops this illiterate and illogical rants is to drive the narrative. He's not going to reduce prices, like he promised. (If prices fall, it's because we will be in a depression.) If you are talking about his latest stupid utterance, you are playing his game. What's more, the news media are totally banking on you watching their shows as they breathlessly report on the latest shit to dribble from Trump's piehole. "What could this mean?"  It means you're a dupe.

This also, most likely, applies to the horrible things Trump and Republicans want to do via Project 2025 and other malefactors. Will they try and deny health insurance to millions of Americans? Yes, they will. Will they succeed? I think Martin Longman is correct when he points out that the Republican legislative strategy seems hopelessly naïve. This is not a functional legislative majority, especially in the House. The current House is 219-215. There will be an election to replace Matt Gaetz, and it will almost certainly be a MAGA idiot. However, Stefanik and Waltz will leave soon for the Executive Branch, and that gets you to 217-215, before the special elections. 

Mike Johnson has almost no leeway to lose votes, and he will certainly lose votes. The cross pressures on the GOP caucus are legion. Read Longman's summary, as it covers the important stuff. 

As you hear of the next horrible thing "Republicans are planning to do" take a deep breath. Yes, it might come to pass, in which case, things will get worse, people will get upset and Democrats re-take the House in 2026. Or just as likely, it fails. They hammer together some tax cuts, screw over the budget and deregulate some business and it's 1990 again. Breathe.  It's going to be a journey.

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