How Crazy Is He?

 Paul Krugman asks that question of Trump, and it's the central question in global politics right now. Yes, there was the batshit insane presser he had yesterday. I'm sure the media is thrilled to have "content" to cover.

Trump's threats to invade - in no particular order - Greenland, Canada, Mexico and Panama are most likely just his usual bloviating bullshit. He probably feels that attention has not been lavished on him in adequate tonnage, so he's started saying crazy nonsense so that people will start talking about him.

Krugman, however, looks at his economic statements and the central conflict between the Republican Economic Daddies who just want some tax cuts, eviscerating the regulatory and welfare state and maybe some pardons, because why the hell not and the MAGA hordes. The Republican Daddies want a few targeted tariffs, maybe a few symbolic deportations to keep the rubes happy and then let the Biden Economy hum along in it's very prosperous traces.

Trump is having none of that, at least rhetorically. The Greenland nonsense is likely just nonsense, so that makes it plausible that he will, in fact, acquiesce to the Daddies in Wall Street. However, he's increasingly coming under the influence of the Tech Broligarchs, and they have some weird economic ideas.

What Krugman notes is that bond markets - the sober older brother of the wastrel gambler that is the stock markets - have basically looked at his statements and said, "Yeah, he's going to deport people and have huge tariffs." Now, those tariffs will almost certainly be for sale. If you grease Trump's palm, he will exempt your supply chain, while punishing your rival's. That's why so many companies are supplicating themselves before Trump; it's why the Washington Post is going to go into the shitter soon. Bezos can't afford to anger Trump.

We will see if Trump actually goes Full MAGA on his tariffs and deportations. Again, the "best" outcome is that he does so and tanks the recovery, from which his reputation and popularity never recover. The bond markets seem to think that's what's going to happen.

UPDATE: I do like how the more social media savvy Dems, like Eric Swallwell and Chris Murphy have greeted all this imperial bluster with a refrain of "How does this make eggs cheaper?" Keep hammering that.