Martin Longman has done good work explaining why the GOP's legislative strategy of using reconciliation to enact their agenda and do all sorts of sketchy stuff is unlikely to pass.
The margins in the House and the deals that Mike Johnson has made with some of his more rabid members have really boxed him in. Also, Trump has said he won't cut Medicare, because even that tapioca brained buffoon knows that's political suicide. Even if the GOP could find the votes to kill Medicaid, I have my doubts that the Senate will go along with that. Medicaid is hugely important to millions of Americans - many of whom voted for Trump.
Meanwhile, even tax cuts - the one unifying idea between MAGA and what remains of normal Republicans - will be hard to pass, with many GOP members wanting to bring back SALT exemptions.
Over all of this hangs the debt ceiling. Traditionally, Republican Speakers have relied on Democratic votes to raise the debt ceiling. Traditionally, that has led to some horse trading. The question is: What should Democrats demand in exchange for a debt ceiling increase? I would think something significant.
If there is a debt ceiling crisis, though, I would imagine the Trump-friendly courts will simply decide that the 14th Amendment applies and the debt ceiling is unconstitutional. In the interim, that will screw up world markets quite a bit. A debt ceiling crisis, followed by eliminating the debt ceiling would be a perfect outcome for Democrats, as the debt ceiling is a loaded gun that Republicans routinely waive around.
In the end, the horrors that are coming will be coming from the White House and the various idiots and crooks Trump is going to staff the government with. It's going to be very hard to actually pass legislation, including budgets.
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