What Happened?

 I've been reluctant to weigh in on the "Why did that asshole win again?" debate, because the data can be messy for a long time. My operating theory of the election was that there were no or few Biden>Trump voters. So, how does 2020 compare to 2024?

Arizona
Harris got about 100,000 fewer votes than Biden. Trump got 100,000 more than 2020. 

Georgia
Harris actually got more votes than Biden. Roughly 60,000 more. Trump got 200,000 more than 2020.

Michigan
Harris got about 70,000 fewer votes than Biden. Trump got about 150,000 more than 2020.

Nevada
Harris got about 2000 more votes than Biden. Trump got about 70,000 more than 2020.

North Carolina
Harris got about 30,000 more votes than Biden. Trump got about 120,000 more than 2020.

Pennsylvania
Harris got about 30,000 fewer voter than Biden. Trump got about 160,000 more than before.

Wisconsin
Harris got about 35,000 more votes than Biden. Trump got 85,000 more than 2020.

Write me a tidy narrative about that. Harris matched or improved Biden's numbers in Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Wisconsin. You can argue that Georgia and North Carolina share demographic similarities, but Nevada and Wisconsin are more similar to Arizona and Michigan, respectively. 

Meanwhile, some DNC delegate on Twitter says that the following numbers of Democrats stayed home:

Arizona: 282,000 Georgia: 269,000 Michigan: 312,000 Nevada: 35,000 North Carolina: 234,000 Pennsylvania: 363,000 Wisconsin: 159,000

But I'm not seeing that in the raw data. 

The fact is that Trump improved on his 2020 numbers. He also improved on his 2016 numbers.

The American electorate looked at Trump's felony convictions (or didn't); they looked at his felony indictments; they looked at January 6th; they looked at the debate debacle...and they came out to vote for him in ways they hadn't before. A campaign without a normal GOTV operation absolutely got out the vote.

The good news is that low propensity voters seemed to make up Trump's victory. If - or more accurately when - things go sideways, they will blame Trump, the same way they "blamed" Biden for an almost comically good economic recovery. When Trump exits the stage, especially if it comes on the heels of some sort of economic or other catastrophe, it's tough to see the next generation Trump.