Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

The Ghost Of Primaries Past

I looked back at the 2008 GOP primary situation.

Huckabee 34%
Romney 25%
McCain 13%
Thompson 13%

Romney 67%
Thompson 25%
Hunter 8%

New Hampshire
McCain 38%
Romney 32%
Huckabee 11%

Romney 39%
McCain 30%
Huckabee 16%

Romney 51%
McCain 14%
Paul 14%

South Carolina
McCain 33%
Huckabee 30%
Thompson 16%

McCain 36%
Romney 31%
Giuliani 15%

Romney 51%
McCain 21%
Paul 18%

These were the pre-Super Tuesday results.  Hard to see a pattern there.  If Gingrich or Santorum wins South Carolina and/or Florida, we're sort of headed in the same fractured direction.

But there is one big difference.  The GOP changed many of their primary rules so that delegates are awarded proportionally rather than winner-take-all.  This will increase the odds that a Gingrich, Paul or Santorum will hang around, especially if Romney struggles to break that 25% ceiling.

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