Clinton obviously benefitted from Perot in '92, Gingrich in '95 and Dole in '96. Yes, he was a remarkably successful Eisenhower Republican as President, but he also drove the GOP insane and that helped him.
Look at Obama. The Tea Party was just bonkers. The last vestiges of the aging Birchers and Reagan "Democrats" shouting into the void. Now he's facing Scrooge McDuck and a guy so toxic even his own party hates him. To know Mitt or Newt is to loath them. Not dislike, loath.
Let's also acknowledge that the President went before Congress last night and basically said, "You are doing a terrible job at doing your job." And he could get away with it, because the GOP has spent the last year acting like three year olds on a Cocoa Puffs fueled tantrum from hell. The GOP House has spent the last year trying to burrow their way into the uteri of American women and defunding Planned Parenthood. Meanwhile, Americans want jobs. Well played, idiots.
And he's been incredibly lucky overseas. A year ago, comparisons were being made to Jimmy Carter. Obama didn't have a Desert One, he had bin Laden shot in the face. And he did it while roasting Donald Trump publicly over the birth certificate nonsense, while simultaneously launching a raid to kill bin Laden. Imagine how that clip would've played at Fox if the mission had gone sideways?
Same with last night. Obama walks on the floor with a speech that revolves around comparing the American military's values to the values of the Congress (and implicitly the GOP). Meanwhile, SEAL Six is rescuing hostages in Somalia. Again, what if the mission goes sideways?
A lot of people shudder at the possibility of a Newt nomination, because that means the American people will face a binary choice between Newt and Obama.
Can anyone doubt after last night that Obama's patient work to claim the middle from Congress and be the "adult in the room" is paying off?
Can anyone doubt after last night that Obama will win?