Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Iowa Down To The Wire

I prefer this from Iowa.

It's neck and neck between Santorum and Romney.  This, of course, is what everyone predicted in October.

Jon Huntsman was running neck and neck with "Other" for awhile but he's pulled into a comfortable lead not only over Other, but also Buddy Roemer and Herman Cain.

Michelle Bachmann is at 5%.  I can't see how she survives this.  Her whole schtick was being from next door in Minnesota.  If she gets more than 2% in New Hampshire, that would be a miracle.  Or a rounding error.

Rick Perry is at about 10%.  He has a ton of money to keep going, but if he can't top 15% in Iowa he's not going to do much better.  I guess South Carolina is still viable for him.

Former front runner Newton Gingrich is at 13%.  I guess a ton of Super PAC attack ads really work,  especially when their target is Newton Gingrich.

Ron Paul is at 21%.  This is pretty disappointing for him, I think.  He actually had a shot at building in New Hampshire, considering the youth vote and the large Libertarian vote presence.  He was doomed in the long run, but he could have made a race of it for a few weeks.

Santorum and Romney are trading leads at 24%.  One will wind up with a few hundred more votes than the other, but the obvious real winner here is Romney.  Santorum won't last very long as the Not-Mitt.  The guy is a joke.

New Hampshire will likely give Romney about 50%.  The next test is really South Carolina.

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