Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Friday, August 24, 2012

An Interesting Poll Number

The horse race numbers nationally have tended to give Obama a 2-5 point lead.  That's also true of the battleground states like Ohio, Nevada, Colorado and Virginia.  We'll see how the Zombie-Eyed Granny Starver goes over in Florida in time.

But a recent AP-GfK poll had Obama up by a single point.  Interestingly, that same poll says the public thinks Obama will win 58-32.  A CNN poll from August 8th had the public thinking Obama would win 63-33.

That means quite a few Romney supporters have already conceded in their mind.

This goes to Romney's weakness as a candidate and the dissatisfaction that many conservatives have with him.  But it will be interesting to see what happens over the next two weeks.  And in particular if that "expectation"  number budges at all.  That sizable number of Romney support that expects him to lose could change if he successfully connects with people in a positive way.

The horse race numbers have been pretty static.  Many have noted just how few "undecided" voters we have this time around.  But the expectation of victory number shows us just how popular each candidate is.

Keep an eye on that one.

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