Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Thursday, October 27, 2022

It's Time

 Putin is making a blustering speech about how the West is to blame for the war in Ukraine. He's making his usual vague threats.

I have a hunch we will be seeing Ukraine launch their fall offensive soon. They rested and regrouped by the September offensive and they have three possible axes of attack: Donetsk, towards Melitopol and grinding down Kherson. Personally - without knowing shit about the dispossession of Russian defensive positions, I would think a strike towards Melitopol and then moving west towards encircling Kherson would force Russia to withdraw or risk being surrounded. Liberating the Zaporizkzhia nuclear power plant would also be a huge plus.

Or maybe Russia has that area well defended. Still, they need to make more gains before the winter sets in, and I would expect something sooner rather than later.

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