Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Sunday, October 9, 2022

Operational Pause

 Ukrainian gains in the Kherson and Luhansk oblasts have slowed considerably. The partial destruction of the Kerch bridge and subsequent HIMARs attacks on Russian rail hubs will have immediate and long term effects on Russia's ability to supply its troops in the Kherson area - which seems to be its main focal point of strength, along with the Donetsk area.

Ukraine has been pretty good about not driving its troops into exhaustion. They will exploit Russian collapses as they have in Kherson and Kharkov oblasts, but they won't degrade their force by pushing their endurance beyond the breaking point.

However, November is coming, and Ukraine would ideally like one more major push that shows real territorial gains. The isolation of Kherson would suggest that is the likely theater, but the destruction of the Kerch bridge could lead to an assault through Zaporizhia oblast towards Melitopol or Mariupol. While Ukraine has been cautious about its troop effectiveness, Russia seems to be more profligate with their troops - hence the mobilization. I simply can't imagine there are abundant Russian troops manning a line from the Dnipro river to Donetsk.  

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