Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Monday, October 10, 2022

This Is What Escalation Looks Like

 Russia launched a series of missile attacks on Ukrainian cities in response to the partial destruction of the Kerch Bridge and in the face of their ongoing problems near Kherson and in Luhansk. In the "every accusation is a confession" style of rhetoric, Russia claimed that the attack on the critical infrastructure of the bridge was "terrorism." It is not. What Russia did in attacking population centers is close to terrorism, if not terrorism itself. It was designed to frighten Ukrainians and simply exert the sort of mindless bloodlust that is for domestic consumption in Russia. 

Putin's biggest worry - as it is very every autocrat - is a palace coup. There are people worse than him in the wings demanding more and more Ukrainian blood. This is for them. This is "looking strong" by bullying population centers.

What we know from countless previous examples is that this will not have an impact on the battlefield. If anything, it will stiffen Ukrainian resolve. However, Russia does not have an endless supply of these rockets. This is also the way escalation works without crossing the nuclear threshold. 

Putin is simultaneously a monster and not the worst person in Russia. Let that sink in.

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