I've been optimistic about Democratic chances in the midterms until quite recently. My optimism was based on Dobbs and how Democrats were outperforming the polls in actual election results. Three things have changed my mind.
The first is the unrelenting a dire emails I get for fundraising. I "get" why they are scaring us into contributing. However, I don't think left of center people necessarily respond well to fear-based appeals. That works great on right of center people, but I just worry it will depress turnout in an election that will fundamentally turn on getting your voters to the polls.
The second is that Republicans latched on to two stories: inflation and crime. Those were the issues that elevated Reagan and they are impervious to "well, actually" factual appeals. Crime is down, but because we observe everything, videos of people committing crimes proliferate. Inflation, while real, is a global phenomenon. This is not a Democratic policy failure, but that simply won't matter.
Finally, the dire emails mesh with a sense of Republican triumphalism and predictions of a Red Wave. Of course, the polling is terribly unreliable and both sides are locked into their epistemic bubbles.
My hope in September was that the GOP's awful candidates, the persistent grip of Trumpism and the inability to squeeze any more gerrymanders out of the House would allow the Dems to beat back the historical tide. When the GOP did not abandon Herschel Walker, I began to wonder what they were seeing. The idea of Walker actually being a US Senator is just appalling. He's brain damaged and mentally unwell.
Yet he's got a real chance of winning. I don't know what to say about that.
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