Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Sunday, October 23, 2022

The Chairman

 Xi Jinping has succeeded in overturning Deng Xiaoping's structural reforms of the Chinese Communist Party that have been in place since Mao's death. Deng put into place a party leadership structure that was inclusive of the various factions within the Party and required the regular rotation of leaders. No General Secretary could serve more than two five-year terms. The Politburo Standing Committee was made up of the various factions within the Party and was intended to end what Mao called "Reds over Experts." Mao had favored ideological purity over technocratic competence, and Deng turned that around. The result was the "Chinese Miracle" of 1990 until today.

Xi has ended the rotation in office and has picked a Politburo based on loyalty to him rather than factional representation or expertise. What is so incredibly striking about all this is that we have real-time evidence of the failures of this sort of ideological purity and personal loyalty over expertise in China's most important ally, Russia. A few years ago, Putin put someone who was actually competent in charge of his military, but when that guy called out corruption, he was sacked. We are seeing the consequences of that in Ukraine.

Dictatorships trade short term efficiency for long term flexibility. The absolute fustercluck in Britain is chaotic, but it also represents a Tory government that should not be in power being removed from power. Liz Truss should not be Prime Minister, so she will not be Prime Minister. If Rishi Sunak becomes PM, he has two years to turn the country around, or he will be bounced from office. (If it's Boris Johnson, I can't imagine how they escape dysfunction leading to an election.)

Democracies give up the messy dramas playing out in Westminster, but they also allow for the correction of mistakes. Xi's elimination of even the "behind closed doors dissent" will most likely weaken China in the long run. His Zero Covid policy is already a disaster that a more flexible CCP would have walked away from. Xi can't and won't.


No comments: