Balk like an Egyptian...
That last one is especially ironic. Ole Deng Xiaopeng said as to what he thought of the French Revolution, "It's too soon to tell." Add in the whole Chinese student impatient with the speed of democratic change thing and...
It's been a tad over two weeks since the protests broke out in Egypt. Mubarak is toast, but he's holding on for reasons that can't be clear to anyone.
I think we're seeing a clear example of a central problem with authoritarian regimes. Many have spoken about the Beltway Bubble that afflicts our elected officials, but the fact is American politicians absolutely have to keep an ear to the ground, a finger to the wind and a trite to the cliche.
Despots, like Mubarak, really have no freaking clue how legitimacy works. Coercion works for a while, maybe a good long while. But at some point, the illegitimacy of the despot trumps the people's fear of coercion. Once that happens, once the people break free of the shackles of fear, there really is little hope for coercion to prevail. At least against a majoritarian movement.
Sure there are counter examples, but take Tiananmen. After the massacre, the Chinese regime moved to increase its legitimacy by bringing growth and increased standards of living to its urban elite. The same urban elite who largely fueled the protests.
Iran in 2009 might be another example, but as Deng said, "Too soon to tell."
I think Mubarak's presence in the Presidential Palace can be measured in days, not weeks or months. When the military stopped the Thug Riots, that was it. Unless the military does an about face - and I don't think it will - Mubarak has no coercive resources left to him. He's already promised to leave. And there really is no one who wants him to stay at this point besides the Israeli leadership and his immediate family.
He's lost his grip on reality.
His grip on power is sure to follow.
UPDATE: I think it's pretty clear that I was the guy who brought him down through the power of this blog.
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