There are two narratives that the Trump legal team appears to be advancing in the hush money trial. The first that's gotten some notice is that his lawyers in opening statements said that it's not a crime to try and influence elections. While this is true, that's not the crime being charged; it's campaign finance laws that were broken. To admit that Trump was trying to influence elections, even in passing, is a very Trumpian move, in that Trump's entire persona is about committing crimes and then basically waiving them away with "everyone does this, I just have the courage to admit it." Trump's lawyers have to play to both the jury and their client, and this is a great example of how playing to their client will hurt.
The second way they look to be playing to Trump's vanity is that they are going to argue that Trump never had sex with Stormy Daniels. This is one of those assertions that Trump probably feels like he has to make in order to keep Melania from killing him in his sleep and to retain the votes of some wavering evangelicals. However, they will have testimony from Daniels and McDougall and Cohen and likely several others saying that there was sex. Arguing that there wasn't will call into question the credibility of the entire defense.
This is where Trump the Narcissist and Trump the Candidate is going to ruin the chances of Trump the Defendant. If he could take the stand and directly refute the charges, it would make sense, but that would involve perjuring himself, because he simply could not help himself. His defense team can't possibly put him on the stand, but he may demand it. Otherwise, he's claiming not to do a thing he clearly did, but doing so without taking the stand.
No, I don't think the case is a slam dunk, the way the documents and election cases are. However, Trump's own (lack of) character might be the tipping factor.
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