Moths To A Flame

 For all of Matt Yglesias' BS about "policy" determining this election, the reality is that the two biggest issues are Dobbs and January 6th. Trump's many trials more or less revolve around his contempt for democratic norms and practices (maybe not the documents one), but the muddied nature of those trials and whether they even come before a jury before election day, means that Dobbs remains the most salient issue for millions of voters.

Even Trump realizes this, which is why he issued a bullshit anodyne statement about leaving it up to the states, even though we know he would sign a national ban. Republican strategists understand that Dobbs is a millstone around their necks, and as each state takes up more and more draconian measures, any national messaging is going to be drowned out by the reality on the ground in reddish states across the country. We already saw Arizona Republicans gleefully kill efforts to repeal an 1863 territorial law banning almost all abortions. Arizona is a potential tipping point state, and this will matter.

Meanwhile, Idaho is out here arguing that a woman can bleed out in the ER until the point very near death before she can be treated. Now, Idaho will not vote for Joe Biden. However, if the Assembly of Religious Experts rules in their favor - and oral arguments today suggest they are trying to find a way to - Idaho's draconian law will be imitated by other deep red states. Tennessee strikes me as a state that would try this, and again, Tennessee won't vote for Biden, but Georgia is right next door. North Carolina is right next door. Media from Tennessee will cross over.

What's more, Democrats can rightly point to laws in these places as the Republican agenda for winning in November.

The doubling down on the most toxic abortion positions seems to be a temptation that the GOP can't help but embrace. The smarter members of their party (Holy SHIT, does that include Trump?!) know that they have to soft-peddle their extremism, but all these state legislators from gerrymandered districts are zealots. They just can't help themselves, but hopefully it will help Democrats this fall.