Money

 It is said that money is the life's blood of politics. If that is true - and I have some qualms about that - then Trump is bleeding out. My qualms are that money is less a mover of elections than a reflection of support. If Candidate A is kicking ass in her fundraising, it's because a lot of people with the means to give are supporting her. Dark money and PACs have muddied this picture considerably, because they can allow billionaires to funnel money around whatever weak campaign finance laws still exist. 

Trump - who was found guilty of lying about his wealth to scam loans and evade taxes - has said that he raised $50,000,000 in a single night. This was - suspiciously - twice as much as Biden raised at a fundraised a few days earlier. There was also a caveat that suggested that a lot of that money will go to PACs and "affiliated groups". The math is very suspect, as it would require attendees to give more than they can actually give legally. It's Trump; it stinks to high heaven.

We do know two additional things. 

First, Trump is going to strip the RNC and his campaign of funds to stay out of prison. It won't be ALL the money, but sizable amounts - especially this summer - will go to legal fees.

Second, the Trump campaign is going to be threadbare. We've already seen that they are WAY behind on hiring staffers in their state offices. Trump ran his business as a family affair. There were only a few people who made the decisions and implemented his will. That was because, again, Trump was not a builder or developer, but a marketing and licensing firm. He was frustrated by trying to govern because it's complicated and somewhat autonomous from the White House. That's part of his "Deep State" frustration.

For decades, we heard people say "We need to run this country like a business" as if governing was the same as running a retail outlet. Trump tried to run America like his business and couldn't, which is why he's got a plan to strip the government of workers if he get elected. 

As it is, his campaign is going to be understaffed and controlled by lackeys who will do his bidding, as he becomes more and more desperate. 

The smart money is already shorting Truth Social, which has fallen in value by a quarter and seems poised to continue to fall. I would guess the smart money will stay away from Trump, especially if he starts to fall in the polls as his legal troubles mount.