I Don't THINK We Are On The Verge Of War

 Iran launched a massive attack of missiles and drones against Israel in retaliation for Israel killing military personnel in Syria. The attack was almost entirely thwarted by a combination of Israel's Iron Dome and the military assistance of not only the US and Britain, but some Arab nations, including Jordan and Saudi Arabia. 

In all the sturm and drang over Gaza, it's important to place the events of October 7th and the subsequent invasion within the larger context of the ongoing proxy wars that Iran is fighting in the Middle East. Iran and Saudi Arabia have been fighting through proxies in Iraq, Syria and Yemen since at least 2010. Most Sunni majority countries like Jordan support Saudi Arabia, whereas a country like Iraq is torn and largely hoping to stay out of harm's way.

Hamas is part of the Axis of Resistance that Iran has built along the Shiite Crescent and with the Houthis in Yemen. The IDF striking in Damascus was a strike against this broader coalition and - importantly - something the US was really not on board with. Ever since 10-7, the US's position has been to try and stave off a longer and larger war between Israel and the entire Iranian coalition. We took on the Houthi in order to get this point across (and because they were fucking with international trade).

With every turn in this conflagration, the question always turns back to Netanyahu. He's a desperate man, working to avoid an election that will oust him from power and likely send him to jail. There's an argument that Iran had to respond to Israel's attack, and that - having made the response - Iran will elect not to escalate further. The other argument is that this was not a symbolic attack, but a real one, even if almost all the incoming missiles and drones were shot down. 

So what does Netanyahu do now? He had the support of a number of countries last night, all of whom are doubtless trying to de-escalate the situation. If he goes it alone, how far will America and the Arab states go in support? Biden pretty clearly does not want to get dragged into a war in the Middle East, but he's also been far too supportive of Israel during worse actions in Gaza. OTOH, Iran's government sucks. But attacking Iran would legitimize a regime that doesn't have a lot of legitimacy with most of its population. 

There are massive incentives on all sides to de-escalate. Israel can't afford another front in this war; Iran is fundamentally weak; the US wants no part of this and the Saudis are trying to build a more stable region. But then you have Netanyahu, who's incentives might run the other way. 

If the next few days bring bluster and tough talk, but no more missiles flying over the Jordan River, I think maybe someone finally hammered a good idea into Netanyahu's head.