Martin Longman ponders what would happen if Trump is actually sentenced to jail. The hush money case has always been considered the weakest case, even though - bizarrely - everyone pretty much admits that he's guilty. The application of the law here is somewhat unique though perhaps not as unique as a lot of critics of the case assert.
First of all, a conviction would - I believe - seal Trump's defeat in November. A sizable portion of Republicans are still unable to choke down his return to the White House - Nikki Haley continues to rack up 15-20% of the vote in primaries - and a felony conviction even without jail time will push the casual voter to either vote for Biden, stay home or possibly vote for Kennedy. In fact, I think Kennedy is going to wind up with a LOT of those Haley protest votes. Trump has never won the popular vote and if he loses 1-15% of REPUBLICANS and independents abandon the convicted felon, then he's toast.
But what about prison? There's a cathartic need to see this odious jackal in an orange jumpsuit. However, if he does escape jail time even if convicted, then that could further enrage the anti-Trump voters. If he were to be sent to the clink, I doubt it would be for very long and it could even be a form of house arrest.
As David Axelrod points out, Trump's entire political persona is as a "winner" and the bully who will fight the people you despise. Losing in court even with house arrest or a suspended sentence makes him look like a loser. It's not certain that Trump will face more legal peril before election day, but he very well might. His fraud appeal could fail. The Georgia case might go foreword. He could get indicted in Arizona.
Of course, a hung jury would complicate all this immeasurably. It sounds like the Supreme Court is going to help delay Trump's election interference case even further down the line.
In the end, Trump will need to be defeated at the ballot box one way or another, but a few months in prison would sure make that easier.
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