Josh Marshall dissects a Vox piece comparing 2004 to 2024. The Vox piece argues that Democrats need a "reckoning" which Marshall hates and I agree with. Trump has - as predicted - dipped under 50% of the vote. The House will be razor thin again, especially after Trump strips away a few members. Democrats won Senate seats in states that Trump won.
I think we have to understand that Trump has won narrow victories by running against women. There has been a desire to not have that conversation, because I'm guessing all sorts of "stake holders" don't want to confront the latent sexism in American society. We like to tell ourselves that we are a pure meritocracy, but the idea that women are significantly less likely to become president because of sexist ideas about leadership punctures that self-congratulatory mythos.
As Marshall notes, the 2004 election was a body blow to Democrats, because of the catastrophe of Iraq, including Abu Ghraib. We assumed that the American people would rebel against an ignoramus who brought disastrous policies to American governance, and we were wrong.
What brought Bush down was his insistence that he had a "mandate" compared to his compromised 2000 election, and he pursued unpopular policies like privatizing Social Security and nationalizing the culture war issue of Terri Schiavo's end of life care. This was compounded by the incompetence of the Katrina response that left Americans dying in the streets of New Orleans.
Does any of this seem like it could repeat itself?
Marshall argues that Democrats need to remember how to be an opposition party. Luckily, Nancy Pelosi is still on the Hill advising Hakeem Jeffries. The peril if that a handful of Democrats go along with some vaguely populist program of Trump's and validate his electoral victory. If the House winds up 215-218, which seems likely, then absences and caucus uniformity could stop unpopular policies like ACA repeal. One of the true and accurate lessons from 2024 is that voters do not care who is literally responsible, they will hold the incumbent president and his party responsible. Gum up the works and the GOP will pay the price.
Again, as long as we have free and fair elections in 2026, Republicans will lose control of the House. Democrats have Senate pick up opportunities in Ohio if Brown runs, Maine, North Carolina and possibly even Alaska. A Blue Wave could sweep through Plains states like Iowa and Kansas if the Trump tariffs decimate the farm economy. That's the focus and the plan is to obstruct.
Yes, that means if we dip into a recession, Democrats cannot bail out people without significant concessions from the GOP. This will require some iron will, but it's the path out of this shit show.
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