With Gaetz gone and Stefanik and Waltz headed to the administration, it looks like the House will be 215-217 for at least a few months. All but one race is called, and the Democrat leads in that to get them to 215. (FWIW, on election day Pelosi said they were going to win the House, and that's the first time she has counted votes wrong.)
Unfortunately, all three come from districts where they won over 60% of the vote so the special elections that tap their successors will almost certainly return a Republican to Washington. Special elections have favored Democrats and there could be the thermostatic effect, which could both make those votes close, but it's VERY unlikely that Dems actually flip those seats.
What this means in the short run is that any single House Republican has the ability to squash legislation. The only legislation likely to pass this Congress is an extension of Trump's tax cuts. The extent and depth of those cuts are now contingent on whichever House member wants to draw a line for fiscal sanity. Efforts to write cultural war bills are DOA in a House that closely divided with a handful of GOP members from places as diverse as Pennsylvania, Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa, Alaska and Arizona winning by close margins in a favorable environment for Republicans.
The House GOP caucus will be slightly more governable with Matt Gaetz gone, but Lauren Boebert, Marjorir Traitor Green and sundry other whackaloons will still be there from the last House, which had a somewhat larger margins and was still a hot mess.
Once again, the incompetence of the Trumpist legions remains our best defense.
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