I want to flag two things. The first is a TikTok, by one of my favorite guys on there. Basically, he notes that the "wrong direction/right direction" number was on the toilet and that almost guarantees an "out party" win. As he says, if you had seen that number in any other country, you would assume the in party was going to lose by a lot. Of course, some of the "wrong direction" numbers come from someone like me who thinks we are going to hell for reasons specific to Donald Trump. This is a trend across the democratic world: incumbent parties are getting hammered.
The other is a way more wonky look at economic data. What's crazy about the data is that consumer confidence index is one metric that should guarantee an incumbent party win. The overall number is 108 (which is good) with the Present Situation Index at 138 (very good) but the Expectations Index is 89, which is still good.
How people felt about the economy was way worse than how they felt about their personal economic situation. As the Slow Boring piece notes, urban counties swung the most towards Trump, probably because cost of living increases hit them hardest. This likely explains at least part of Trump's big gains among Latinos. Look at where he picked up votes:
This isn't to say he WON those places, so much as that's where he made his gains. And he gained everywhere. In fact, Harris outperformed in the swing states, because she campaigned there. This wasn't a bad campaign, it was a bad environment. This wouldn't change if Biden stayed in or they nominated Johnny Unbeatable.
Democrats did hold on to their more educated voters, and I think that probably isn't entirely cultural and a revulsion to Trump. I think that they are doing better and more insulated from inflation and better able to read economic data. I read (somewhere) that credit card interest rates are higher than they were during the 1978-1982 inflationary period, when the prime rate was 20%. People with higher economic literacy are more likely and more able to pay off their cards every month and that's likely a hidden metric of economic frustration among working class voters.
So, basically, America has the strongest economy in the world, people feel pretty good about their own economic conditions and yet they voted to oust the Democrats from power because of "the economy".
One of the many perverse things about Trump is how he roots for and revels in "American carnage" and the idea that we are a shithole country. At this point, you almost have to take that position yourself.
Among the things that worries me most is that Trump is about to inherit a really robust economy, which he will take credit for.
However, the two main planks in his platform are tariffs and deporting people. If he actually does what he said he wanted to do, (and I think even many of his supporters don't really believe him) then he will create another wave of inflation. If you want a template for what his economic policies will look like, check out post-Brexit Britain.
The fear-inducing reality of Trump 2.0 is that he will be unbound by even the stoutest of guard rails. I don't even know what to say about what he will do to the Courts, what this means for marginalized groups. The worst people are energized right now.
Still, he is also surrounded by Silicon Valley Broligarchs like Musk who will push him towards austerity and tariffs. They will set out to destroy the regulatory state. They will likely trade tariffs for bribes. They will deport the people who do most of our low wage labor.
All of this - if it indeed happens - will immiserate the country. As Charlie Pierce noted, we are about to get exactly what we wanted and it will likely suck.
If he does pursue his ethno-state mercantilist vision - and we have anything approaching free elections in 2026 - the pendulum will swing again, because we are a fundamentally ill-informed people. Trump is already a lame duck, he's old, his brain is mush. His administration could very well be taken over by Vance and Musk and Thiel and people with very fucked up ideas of politics, but guys who will likely drive their cybertruck off the cliff.
Hunker down folks, because our best shot at saving democracy is that he does exactly what he says he will do.
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