Trump has blustered that he will impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as opposed to a 10% tariff on China. This raises questions about what his intentions are that are largely moot. Trying to ascribe strategy to this guy is pointless. It's all "Made For TV" policy.
It sounds like he's basically using tariff policy to address immigration and drug smuggling. I'm sure Canada is off in the corner looking around saying, "WTF?"
Here's the tricky part, which of course escaped his wee brain. Two-thirds of the fruits and vegetables that we import come from Mexico. Much of our winter produce comes from there, and he will be imposing his tariffs on January 21st. If you crash the Mexico agriculture sector, you will create more migrants to the US. Right now, few of the cross-border migrants are from Mexico; they mostly come from Central America and the Caribbean via Mexico. So, your plan to cut immigration via tariffs could very well lead to more immigration.
What's more, the Mexican administration is unlikely to help stem migration - as it has been for a few years - if the US has declared economic warfare on it. As for drugs, Mexico has been trying for 20 years to get a handle on drug cartels and the results have been both dismal and lethal.
Of course, the most likely outcome is this:
- Trump levies tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
- Certain companies bribe Trump to exempt their goods from those tariffs.
- Some prices spike.
- People get unhappy.
- Trump declares that no more migrants and fentanyl are coming into the country, despite evidence to the contrary.
- Faux News declares that migration and drug trafficking have ceased.
- Cult 45 has collective orgasm.
Remember, the authoritarianism is just the cover for the corruption and the incompetence is a byproduct of the corruption.
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