It's pretty clear that the excellent macroeconomic situation did not translate to people feeling good about their economic prospects...despite a strong Consumer Confidence Index.
I've been going back to my posts from 2016 to see what I wrote about the last time he won. My concerns were largely the same: corruption; the Affordable Care Act; the environment; the attack on the rule of law; the reckless mendacity of the man.
However, there were a few things I feared that Trump never really attempted. I was worried about attacks on Social Security and Medicare. Those never happened and I don't see Trump embracing them now. I can even squint and see him taking a pass at repealing the ACA. His voters need it and it's popular.
The other thing I worried about is now my "worry" now: trade wars. Trump came into 2017 promising trade wars that I assumed with be inflationary. He did do some of that, but remarkably little and it really didn't create untenable inflation. Again, as always, the question is whether we can expect Trump to do what he says he will do.
Among the many tragedies of this election - and trying to catalog them just makes my soul ache - is that Trump is poised to inherit a booming economy. The Fed is lowering rates. The post-inflationary boom carried Reagan to his second term and could elevate Vance in 2028.
So, again, I find myself weirdly rooting for Donald Trump to follow through on his agenda. Bigger and more extensive tariffs; deporting as many people as he can get his hands on; anything that will reawaken inflation and make him unpopular again.
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